Evacuation Thread ("Killer" Katrina)

[chriscaffee]

Except humans have been altering the environment since they first walked the earth. The Native Americans did controlled burns of vegetation. To differentiate "humans" from "nature" is laughable as we are a part of it. That is why this world is so complicated because every organism tries to alter it to suit it's immediate needs, and that, is subsequently why it changes so much.

And the models they use to predict the climate a thousand years ago are educated guesses at best. And the rise in temperature based on all this? Half a degree.

[Brazillian Cara]

The fact is, We'll all be already dead for years when shit starts happening. That's why we don't care.

[Frieza2000]

Humans have altered the world by their very existence, but not on today's scale. Native Americans could've burned down whole forests and not produced the 6.6 tons of carbon per person per year dumped into the atmosphere by this country alone. The magnitude of what we're doing now is incomparable to what we were capable of doing 1000 years ago. It's entirely possible that it could change the climate in a way that we've never changed it before.

I wouldn't know about the accuracy of ancient temperature divining, so I can share your doubt. Tree rings, corals, and ice cores may be subject to inconsistencies or our interpretation simply wrong, yet I am also unconvinced that this theory is without merit. But I can agree that there isn't enough evidence to be certain.

A warming trend of about 1°F has been recorded since the late 19th century.

As atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases continue to rise, scientists estimate average global temperatures will continue to rise as a result. By how much and how fast remain uncertain. IPCC projects further global warming of 2.2-10°F (1.4-5.8°C) by the year 2100. This range results from uncertainties in greenhouse gas emissions, the possible cooling effects of atmospheric particles such as sulfates, and the climate's response to changes in the atmosphere.

Even if it's true, yes, it's not immediately catastrophic. It might even have a terminal level for all we know. But it does add energy to the system that wasn't there before. That's when you get into the doomsday theories about melting icecaps and radical storms, of which I know little.

There just has to be something wrong with filling the stratosphere with that much of a gas that stays there for periods ranging from decades to centuries.

[Esrever]

You're right about humans altering their environment, Chris. But it wasn't until the dawn of the industrial age that we were able to alter it to the massive scale that we can and do today.

It's definitely a bad idea to separate "humans" from "nature". But even though we are a part of the system, and even though we and other lifeforms will always be actively altering it... that doesn't mean we've got free reign to do whatever the hell we want. It would be ridiculous (and impossible) to try to "preserve" some kind of perfect, unchanging balance that never existed. But we have to be careful that the changes we DO initiate won't have an adverse long-term effect, even if our only motive is selfishness. It's just pragmatism. We don't want to make our planet less hospitible to our own species, right?

The evidence for global warming may appear sparse. But I swear, for some people it seems like the only evidence they'd consider "definitive" would be when the earth's temperature jumps 5 degrees every week. That would certainly make things a little more obviously definitive, but the whole point of trying to identify "trends" is to avert them before their effects become that obvious (and severe) because it's much harder to reverse than it is to prevent.

If you are so sure that the temperature data from the last thousand years is so unreliable, then how can you be sure that this kind of change we're observing today is normal? I mean, what are you even basing that on? Either the data is correct, in which case it IS an unusual rise -- or the data is unknown, in which case it's a mystery whether or not this is unusual. You can't have it both ways, can you?

But let's assume it IS unreliable. It's not all we have to go on. You just need to start looking for indicators that are a little more indirect. For example: here's some data that IS definitive. The average summertime temperatures in the Artic have risen over 2.5 degrees Celcius since 1981. There's no "educated guess" about that one... that's based on data collected by satellites orbiting the Arctic and measuring reflected infrared radiation. 2.5 degrees in 24 years is pretty damn alarming, especially when it has been chaging at a relatively consistent rate and has not yet shown any signs of slowing.

Anyhow, in 2002, melting caused a massive, 15 km long, 80 metre wide crack in the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf. A rare freshwater lake on the ice's surface drained straight into the Arctic sea, and took with it a ton of rare minute lifeforms that had been living in that spot since previous ice ages. They all poured into the saltwater and died. If this sort of temperature change is normal, why where those organisms wiped out before?

This is just one example. There are plenty of others that have helped convince the vast majority of the scientific community that the climate change occuring today is unprecedented. Something unusual is happening right now. You can debate whether or not it's our fault, but there's little room to argue that it isn't happening in the first place.

[Frieza2000]

Something is happening, but since industrialization has only been going on for the last century (and it's effects been made noticeable for only half that time) it could be one of those natural shifts that just happen once in a while, dramatic as it may seem. It could even be temporary. Like the first paragraph I posted says, even the EPA concedes that it's a possibility. What it comes down to is whether or not we're willing to spend tons of money on something that isn’t certain. What it will take for it to be made convincing enough is time, and if it's true then the longer we wait the more severe the effects.

[chriscaffee]

Do I know if the temperature changes are normal changes? No. But I do know that change itself is normal. I know that weather and climates are very difficult to predict and that is why I am skeptical of this theory. I think it has some mushy foundations.

That said I'm all for keeping the planet in a state that is preferable for our species as a whole, though not for the sake of any theory.

[Spazz]

Update-type thing: Well, I've moved again (3rd time), I'm now in a town called New Iberia, which is kinda SE of Lafayette, for those who have any idea where that is. Last night, I got an idea of what it's like to live as white trash. Yep, I got to stay in a trailer for a night, next to a bayou. Not the kind with wheels though, it was like a small house with sections lined up. It was fairly fancy though, it even had a home theatre system in it, but it was like living in a flea market. It was my aunt's, so we just stayed there for one night so my aunt could prepare to take us in.
Hopefully, I'll be able to go home soon and get my PC and whatever else I can so I can keep in touch more frequently. I heard there was a carjacking somewhere in my parish, some thugs stole a postal service vehicle, and drove it through the fron of a pharmacy to loot it. =/

Also, the president of my parish (aka county) declared Jefferson Parish seceded from the union. Now he expects foriegn support from the U.S. because he was upset that other areas were getting more support than his. XP

[Baba O'Reily]

Also, the president of my parish (aka county) declared Jefferson Parish seceded from the union. Now he expects foriegn support from the U.S. because he was upset that other areas were getting more support than his. XP

That's hardcore.

[Delphine]

<a href="http://www.ktvotv3.com/Global/story.asp ... 662">First lady visits Louisiana center, says it's not like what you're seeing on T-V</a>

LAFAYETTE, La. First lady Laura Bush says she's seeing proof that not all parts of Louisiana are in terrible shape.

Mrs. Bush has visited an evacuation center inside the Cajundome in Lafayette. She told reporters the center "doesn't really look like what we're seeing on television."

That's because, you know, the Cajundome is in Lafayette, and not NEW ORFUCKINGLEANS.

[Omni Hunter]

Sorry to bring this thread up again, but I hear of a certain Rita who is heading for Texas, where a few of our forumers live.

[Zeta]

Hell, Texas actually deserves it, though. :p

[Segaholic2]

I'm not worried. There's no way it's ever going to make its way this far inland.

[Brazillian Cara]

What are the chances of a cyclone/hurricane/whatever hitting Washington? More specifically, that house on Pensylvania street?

[Double-S-]

Wow, that was insanely witty.

[Spazz]

So GG!, what's up with you now? Rita hit southwest LA pretty hard, and I heard that the Lafayette and some of the other areas around there were asked to evacuate. I hear part of the I-10 even collapsed overnight...